Holland Railconsult was invited by Railtrack, in May 2000, to perform a risk analysis for the introduction of axle counter-based train detection systems on the West Coast Route. Axle counters may to a large extent replace the currently applied track circuits. Therefore, not only the risk associated with hazards of axle counter systems was analysed, but also a comparison was made between the key benefits (opportunities) and drawbacks (hazards) of both concepts of train detection. The goal of the analysis was to consider the concept of axle counters and not a specific currently available product. The methodology used for modelling the risk is the Railtrack Advanced Cause Consequence Analysis (ACCA), which is supported by the modelling tool EISAE. This article describes the work done and the results of the risk analysis. The results quantitatively support the safety arguments in the Axle Counter Concept Safety Case which was produced by WS Atkins Rail. The work was completed in December 2001.